Rookie Starters
With Homer Bailey set for his major league debut Friday, Andrew Miller recalled for at least two more starts, and the Cubs bring up Sean Gallagher from Double-A for a long relief role, possibly a starting gig later, there seems to have been an inordinate amount of rookie starting pitchers this season; too few with success. In fact, that’s true, more so than last season which was also high. In the simplest of terms - there’s been a change in philosophies — the business of baseball – and there’s a changing of the guard; I’ll let others pontificate on health and aging issues for now. I have my thoughts and analysis but it’s too large for a blog post.
Waiting for the 2007 draft to commence, I’ll leave you with a little analysis to ponder. After the draft I intend to write article content daily, beginning with organizational reports per team on how their prospects are presently doing with a short analysis, adding a few of my favorite choices from their draft. I won’t re-rank my lists, feeing it’s rather superfluous to change a long term rank based on what’s transpired in a 60-day time frame. In fact, I don’t trust those in this field that do it; what does that imply about their preseason ranking?
In 2006 there were 71 rookies that started games, five made 30-plus starts for a total of 799. This season, one third in, there’s been 36 thus far; five began the year, for a total of 167. The results below are not particularly good nor is there much difference between them.
Rookie Pitchers 2006 and June 5, 2007
| Year | GP | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | ERA | WHIP | Hits/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 1147 | 799 | 285 | 309 | 5006 | 4988 | 2756 | 2581 | 2045 | 3628 | 4.64 | 1.405 | 8.968 | 6.523 |
| 6/5/07 | 224 | 167 | 61 | 66 | 991.3 | 1033 | 558 | 527 | 381 | 618 | 4.78 | 1.426 | 9.378 | 5.611 |
The Homer Bailey/ Curtis Thigpen Call Ups
Homer Bailey is now official, set to start Friday against the Indians, the time frame being preferable as he last pitched on Saturday for Triple-A Louisville. I’m truly excited about this despite not owning him in any of my fantasy leagues; the top pitching prospect in the minors in my mind.
Curtis Thigpen got the call for the Jays with
Thigpen, now 24, has been around for a while as an athletic catcher who hits gap-to-gap; a hard spray more than a pure power hitter, his Triple-A Syracuse time this season proof with a .299 batting average and three home runs. I expect more of the same, believing he’ll be able to cut down on the American League-worst 16 percent throw-out rate of runners, however, I doubt the Jays are considering him for full-time receiving duty at present with both Phillips and Sal Fasano on the roster
What to Expect From Homer Bailey and Co. The Rank and Follow
With Andy Sonnanstine expected to make his major league debut on Tuesday, Homer Bailey possibly on the weekend, I thought a chance to expound upon the development process at the majors might be in order. Below is a list of the starting pitching prospects called up this season that stayed for more than a look, and how they fared per start. It doesn’t surprise me when they begin well, and then falter, but not everyone has been at this for as long. A decent prospect having success in the minors is often brought up and there’s a good chance that first start will be decent; just as equal they’ll struggle later. It is the final development phase at the major league level.
There’s a ton of information, even footage, available on the net for most prospects. Despite this hitters rarely know what to expect; one they play baseball every day, not analyze it, two, they need to see it from their unique view, not a behind-camera shot through a wide angle lens, and three, the advance scouts have reports but haven’t spent the hours viewing them against major leaguers looking for the idiosyncrasies, the type of pitch on the different counts etc, looking for the tell or something to give to their team’s hitters. The first go round is the easiest the pitcher will face, the development is in the adjustments over time.
I’m not surprised when a pitcher I don’t think will fare well in that season has initial success. But I don’t change my mind based on this one start. Andrew Miller was not ready for the majors but did well in his one and out. Jesse Litsch did too but was left in the rotation and the below ending was predictable for almost every analyst. J. P Howell had a great first outing as did Kevin Slowey; I expect neither will continue without some trial. I think Slowey is a terrific prospect, as I do Andrew Miller, but each are judged on their readiness and the stuff they have at present. Litsch’s final outing was proof he was nowhere near ready as he didn’t have the experience to adjust to those who had already adjusted to him. He should have not been in the majors. The Jays had too few options and took a risk; hopefully it doesn’t contain any lingering issues and Litsch goes about demolishing the Double-A Eastern League in the same fashion prior to the call up. It’s really that simple and wholly applicable to fantasy leaguers and the one-year mindset.
I’ve been analyzing prospects and minor leaguers for so long I now know most current major leaguers from their minor league scouting reports and analysis. Once I’ve got a handle on the player and his skill set they remain relatively constant. Once in while I’m dead wrong, mainly I’m right in varying degrees. Too often I see the more inexperienced fantasy player overvalue the rookie, then when he doesn’t become the star they envisioned in that season, go polar-opposite and abandon him in his sophomore year, ironically the season he’s more far likely to break out in. And it’s an even slower process for pitchers; the right-handed power pitchers being the first to yield desirable results with left-handed control types the slowest. The common phrase is post-rookie hype. Never buy the initial hype or you’ll consistently be disappointed. And if you’re less likely to be disappointed, you’ll be less likely to avoid the name in his second year. How many of you left Prince Fielder on your draft table far too long this year and are paying for it now? The same applies to pitchers, but add a year or two; we’ll call it the Rank and Follow for one-year leagues. Don’t over rank rookie pitchers in their first year and follow their progress for two years after the fact; uninjured they’re likely to yield at least some of the promised fruit from their prospect ranking by that time.
First Starts
| DATE | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | GB | FB | TBF | # Pit | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Baker Min | 5/19 | @Mil | 8.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 31 | 96 | |
| 5/25 | Tor | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 24 | 92 | ||
| 5/30 | CWS | 3 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 63 | ||
| Tim Lincecum SF | 5/6 | Phi | 4.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 100 | |
| 5/11 | @Col | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 29 | 112 | ||
| 5/17 | @Hou | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 96 | ||
| 5/22 | Hou | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 29 | 105 | ||
| 5/29 | @NYM | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 113 | ||
| 6/3 | @Phi | 6.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 29 | 101 | ||
| Ryan Feierabend SEA | 5/29 | @LAA | 6.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 91 | |
| 6/3 | Tex | 7.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 29 | 110 | ||
| Bobby Livingston Cin | 5/13 | @LAD | 5.1 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 26 | 82 | |
| 6/1 | @Col | 6.2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 8 | 28 | 108 | ||
| Tyler Clippard NYY | 5/20 | @NYM | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 95 | |
| 5/25 | LAA | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 76 | ||
| 5/30 | @Tor | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 98 | ||
| Jesse Litsch Tor | 5/15 | Bal | 8.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 30 | 99 | |
| 5/20 | @Phi | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 71 | ||
| 5/25 | @Min | 4.1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 89 | ||
| 5/30 | NYY | 0.2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 36 | ||
The Recall of Cleveland’s Franklin Gutierrez
Franklin Gutierrez got recalled on Thursday going 0-for-3 in Friday’s game. At the time of the call –his second this season –he was fourth in the Triple-A International League with a .341 batting average, showing both power and speed on the base paths as Triple-A Buffalo’s rightfielder and leadoff hitter.
Gutierrez has improved each year since coming over from the Dodgers organization as a raw, but intriguing tools prospect. The now 24-year-old has always interested me, first because he was so underdeveloped as a Dodger I was curious if the Indians – an organization that has turned development of hitters into an art form since the mid 90s – could make anything of his raw talent package. He’s become a better hitter, more disciplined, and a solid defender with a strong arm. But, while he’s improved each year in all aspects, he’s never statistically banged down the door; never put up huge power or speed numbers, and never made a dent in the few times he’s been promoted.
To be candid, the Indians have so much depth at the position I’m unsure why they made this move. I was also perplexed by their free agent signings at the position in the off-season as they seemed an unnecessary expense. As much as Gutierrez interests me, he looks like a spare a part with the current club; a host of other minor leaguers in Sin Soo Choo, Ben Francisco, Brian Barton, Brad Snyder, and some large potential outfield bats for later in the decade in Trevor Crowe and John Drennan; even a few more outside the circle at present and another draft this month.
Maybe it’s time to see if Gutierrez has some trade value, perhaps this is the sole reason for his call up and Friday start. I’d like to see it; his Triple-A numbers are strong, he could fit the needs of some organizations, and his time to rise or fall is now.
The Devil Rays Clean House with Andy Sonnanstine and JP Howell Promotions?
With struggling starters and promising prospects at Triple A, the Devil Rays are expected to make changes in their rotation, perhaps as soon as Friday, the St. Petersburg Times reports. Andy Sonnanstine and J.P. Howell look to be the top choices to be called up, with Jae Seo and Casey Fossum the likely candidates for demotion or departure.
My personal favorite for long term success — also at Triple-A Durham — is Jeff Neimann, and I find the scouting report contained in the article mentioned flawed to the extent it’s not completely accurate; a glass half-full view of what is likely to transpire. Sonnanstine and Howell have the done the necessary things to warrant their call up, Neimann returning from injury this season and less experienced should probably stay down until he’s having greater Triple-A success; at some point I believe he will.
This has been noted in the Rumor Mill section and it doesn’t contain the necessary concurrence from the organization that anything is brewing. This particular news organization has made a habit of conjecture; sometimes it’s correct, sometimes not. They’re not intending to mislead per se, but I thought a paragraph to point to the style wouldn’t hurt; too many of us innocently view newspaper reports as certainties.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there were at least some truth to this. It would be odd if the team was to clean 40 percent of their rotation in one day, but one move Friday wouldn’t come as a shock given their ineffectiveness. I’ve written on Sonnanstine often over the last two years as a prospect that has defied basic scouting logic and made a name bypassing many of better pedigree and superior stuff. I won’t regurgitate my thoughts or go through the profile here. His International League numbers are solid across the board, save for one forgotten stat issue. As a pitcher who gets by on guile, he’ll have far more difficulty fooling major leaguers. He can succeed given his improved repertoire and control but not without some time in learning mode. He’s a less-than-severe groundball pitcher who gets hit hard on flyballs, most heading to centerfield. When considering the stuff, the jump to the majors, and the home park, the entire statistical view suggests if he takes his best from Triple-A this year, he’ll be crushed by left-handers at his home park. And he’ll need finite control to limit the base runners when this occurs. As much as I’ve come to appreciate his pluckiness for defying the odds and becoming a pitching prospect, his best will not be in 2007, and he’ll be lucky to get away with an ERA under 5.00 this year.
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